Abstract

In a meta-analysis of startup performance, Read, Song and Smit (2009) empirically support, that effectuation is particularly useful in uncertain (Knight 1921) new ventures. However, the possibility that effectuation may also offer a heuristic of interest to managers in mature environments has not been developed theoretically or tested empirically. Indeed there is empirical support for the connection between planning and success in a mature environment. But what effects are associated with the use of an effectual approach? This study seeks to inform the boundaries of effectuation and the transition from effectual to causal logic as a function of environment.

We examine the occurrence of effectual decision making in mature industries and assess outcomes related to an effectual approach. In this context we establish, that certain aspects of effectuation are applicable in mature industries, and test hypotheses regarding the perception of environmental uncertainty/maturity together with outcomes of managerial effectual behavior.

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