Predicting the future successes of early to mid-stage technologies is one of the most fundamental of all technology management functions. Grant funding agencies, university technology transfer offices and venture capitalists all partake in this exercise. But while we know, at least in hindsight, some of the factors that appear to be related to successful technological commercialization we know far less about whether or not these factors can actually be predicted.

This study examined sixty-eight early to mid-stage homeland defense technologies which were funded by the Center for the Commercialization of Advanced Technology (CCAT), a DoD sponsored agency. In addition, a paired sample of unfunded proposals to CCAT was also examined. This allowed for examination of Type I errors (not funded but successful technologies) and Type II errors (funded but failed technologies) by matching funding decisions to the subsequent success or failure of technologies progressing towards commercialization.