There is little doubt that entrepreneurs tend to be highly confident in their abilities, their future outcomes and their knowledge. Still, the debate about the consequences of entrepreneurial (over) confidence on new venture performance is far from resolved. A first question relates to the “optimal” intensity of entrepreneurial confidence or the specific threshold above which confidence becomes “too much of a good thing”. A second and less debated question concerns the nature of entrepreneurial confidence and how different types of entrepreneurial beliefs, e.g., ability vs. outcome expectancies, may affect venture performance. The main objective of this study is to examine whether different varieties of confidence have distinct or similar effects on venture emergence.